National Poll Summary

Many polls came out today, some with merit and some without.  Lets review each one in brief.

The reputable Polls that have consistent high samples and low margin of error

Morning Consult October 22-25, 2015  View the entire poll here in pdf format You really can’t get much better information from a poll than this one.  Very detailed 187 pages of information and data with excellent crosstabs!  Yet rarely referred to by the media… I wonder why….

  • Trump 35 and Carson 20  (Previous week was Trump 40 and Carson 14)
  • The gains were from equal for both coming from the bottom pollers.
  • Trump section starts on page 76
  • Does equally well with men and women
  • It appears to be a 50/50 on the education.  Look for yourself

OANN/Gravis Poll See the graphic version and Press Release here

Pew Research Poll  Will be out today… leaving spot

The Unreliable Polls – There are many low samples and high MOE but for now here is a graph showing how they have performed recently.

Poll-outliers 1

As you can see above, CBS/NY Times Poll is not in line with the others.  Very telling.  Disregard anything from that poll.

Poll Real Clear 10-27

Real Clear Politics is not really reliable since it doesn’t post all of the polls.  They cherry pick polls.  But it is a useful tool to review.  Here is a direct link to the action

Reuters Poll 10-27-15

Polls Unveiled

The Media has many people confused with all the polls and it is very overwhelming at first… all by design.  This tactic is used to herd the viewers into the direction they wish us to go.  We need to educate ourselves on the truth.  In this way when you see the polls you will be able to discern truth from fiction (agenda).

There are credible polls as well as politically driven polls.  Since the media doesn’t do it’s job of disclaiming the facts lets look at the tell tell signs.

Poll Sample Size

Many of the polls use a very small sample size to produce the conclusion that meets their agenda.  Larger sample sizes are usually more in line with reality.

Earlier this month, the media was buzzing over a poll showing Carson at 24% and Trump at 17%.  It was played on Main Stream Media news channels and social media as if it was some sort of proof that Carson was leading the race.  Here is a link to the origin of the poll.

  • How many Republicans did this poll survey?  377
  • What demographic were those surveyed?  Investors

Of the 377 investors, 24% liked Carson and 17% liked Trump etc…  Is that a real survey that affects the average person?  No.  This poll has no merit with anyone other than investors. The poll simply made news to drive a political narrative.

Margin of Error

In this same example, you will see a margin of error (MOE) at +/- 5 percentage points.  That is a huge variable and should not be taken seriously.  Some polls will be used by media with an MOE of 7 or even 10 percent which is not even worth the paper it is written on.

Reliable polls, such as Gravis/OANN and Morning Consult are usually in the 2% MOE range.

Demographics – Was this poll a fair representation of all walks of life?

Lets look at an example.  A recent Monmouth Poll for Iowa can be viewed here.

Notice in this example that the demographics are mostly 50+ year old individuals.  The younger population is barely represented in this poll.

In order to really get a picture on a monmouth poll you would need to look also at their methodology which totally discredits them as a reliable poll.  You can review their methodlogy here.

Questions Asked

Many polls are purchased by a particular candidate or political group to drive a narrative on the phone.  You would have to read the report to know what type of poll it is in many cases.